We chose to come to the masjid for one reason: in numbers, we have strength, and prayer. Such was our salvation. The storm is making landfall further east and there will be very little threat to Houston. There will be even less threat to Katy, where we are.
I am in our comunity's masjid in Katy, with a large fraction of the jamaat here. We were prepard to sit out the storm here. We will likely remain here until morning, but it definitely wont be as bad as was expected. We will hang out here tonight and if things are pretty calm (relatively) we might go back to my inlaws place as early as 8am. We have generators, water, food, etc here in the masjid (not to mention a wireless connection :) so we are all set.
Friday, September 23, 2005
shelter in place
ok, final decision. Headed to masjid for mghrib, will sta there tonight and most of tomorrow until storm passes. Last update for a while, but cell will work for a while longer so call me :) Blogging will resume after we get back from masjid, if power and DSL still remain.
contraflow
the new favorite word of every broadcaster is "contraflow". I swear I hear it a thousand times a day. All it means is that they reversed the direction of traffic on the eastbound lanes on I-10 and the southbound lanes of I-45 so that traffice could expand to those lanes also. I-45 has been positively demonic; people have spent 30 hours on the freeway and barely getting past Waco. I-10 has been pretty bad too; we did hear from some friends who made it to SA having left at 7am and taking them from between 12-15 hours. The main reason we didnt leave was concern about running out of gas and being stranded like so many have been; the aforementioned friends were driving a Camry and went without AC. That just wouldn't work for us, we need to use our big SUV to accomodate everyone and we cant go 15 hrs without AC given that we have a 3yr old. The contraflow arrangement started at 4pm and initial reports are that it did start to help clear up some of the congesion, but given the storm's continuing NE-drift, we decided to sleep comfortably here tonight and eat a good breakfast.
This morning we slept in; I tried to stay up after praying fajr but was just still wiped out from the hellish drive to Katy the day before. We just woke up and I checked the advisory, and found this from advisory #23:
Overall, the storm is weaker and is even further away. The next advisory is at 1pm, so things may change, but for now it looks like here in Katy we won't have hurricane force winds. We will likely have tropical storm force winds (39mph) and significant rain. Its even possible we wont lose water or have an electricity outage longer than a few hours. I'm being optimistic :)
So, contraflow. Our plan is to stay here, not try to reach SA. We are headed to masjid this afternoon, and will simply ride it out from here. As for our house in Dickinson, it will certainly fare worse there than here; I hope that the damage is limited to shingles and food spoilage, but it's likely that there will be some flooding. I hope the preparation we did was enough, but I just cant think about that right now. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it...
This morning we slept in; I tried to stay up after praying fajr but was just still wiped out from the hellish drive to Katy the day before. We just woke up and I checked the advisory, and found this from advisory #23:
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH AND THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE
CORE OF RITA WILL MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND
UPPER TEXAS COASTS EARLY SATURDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. RITA IS AT THE BORDER OF CATEGORY FOUR AND THREE HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON SCALE. SLIGHT WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE BEFORE
LANDFALL...BUT RITA IS EXPECTED TO COME ASHORE AS A MAJOR
HURRICANE.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 205 MILES.
Overall, the storm is weaker and is even further away. The next advisory is at 1pm, so things may change, but for now it looks like here in Katy we won't have hurricane force winds. We will likely have tropical storm force winds (39mph) and significant rain. Its even possible we wont lose water or have an electricity outage longer than a few hours. I'm being optimistic :)
So, contraflow. Our plan is to stay here, not try to reach SA. We are headed to masjid this afternoon, and will simply ride it out from here. As for our house in Dickinson, it will certainly fare worse there than here; I hope that the damage is limited to shingles and food spoilage, but it's likely that there will be some flooding. I hope the preparation we did was enough, but I just cant think about that right now. We'll cross that bridge when we come to it...
Thursday, September 22, 2005
update
took us 9 hours to go 60 miles from our home to Katy at my in laws' place. Exhausting. Rita's track now projects to pass directly over Galveston island, which means that we are out of here. Headed to San Anonio this afternoon.
If theres any silver lining, our hourse will now be in the southeast quadrant - maybe teh wind damage will be less. But Galveston is going to be hit hard, as will the medical center in Houston.
family: cell phone shoudl still work fine, will call mom/dad when we reach san antonio.
3:40PM: nevermind, still in Katy. Traffic is impossible - will never reach San Anonio on a tank of gas. Maybe leave tonight, esp now that I-10 is open ion both directions westbound. We will see, still deciding. We are in Katy house, call us here (land line number), cell phones are intermittent.
4:00PM - woah! storm tracks are pushing further east. If it makes landfall near Beaumont then Galveston will be spared, and we prolly wont even lose power here in Katy. The thing can turn on a dime, of course. Theres supposed to have been a 4pm advisory by now but it isnt out yet. I'll check again in 15 min and try to blog again around 5pm.
ah, here it is. Public Advisory #21:
Hmm. Our plan is to stay put in Katy until this evening and re-assess whether we still want to go to San Antonio depending on whether the storm continues its curving away towards Louisiana.
If theres any silver lining, our hourse will now be in the southeast quadrant - maybe teh wind damage will be less. But Galveston is going to be hit hard, as will the medical center in Houston.
family: cell phone shoudl still work fine, will call mom/dad when we reach san antonio.
3:40PM: nevermind, still in Katy. Traffic is impossible - will never reach San Anonio on a tank of gas. Maybe leave tonight, esp now that I-10 is open ion both directions westbound. We will see, still deciding. We are in Katy house, call us here (land line number), cell phones are intermittent.
4:00PM - woah! storm tracks are pushing further east. If it makes landfall near Beaumont then Galveston will be spared, and we prolly wont even lose power here in Katy. The thing can turn on a dime, of course. Theres supposed to have been a 4pm advisory by now but it isnt out yet. I'll check again in 15 min and try to blog again around 5pm.
ah, here it is. Public Advisory #21:
RITA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR. A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CORE OF RITA WILL BE APPROACHING THE
SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA AND THE UPPER TEXAS COAST LATE FRIDAY.
Hmm. Our plan is to stay put in Katy until this evening and re-assess whether we still want to go to San Antonio depending on whether the storm continues its curving away towards Louisiana.
Wednesday, September 21, 2005
batten down the hatches!
Good news, my wife is not classified as E1 so that means she wont have to ride out the storm at the hospital. She is however E2 which will be on call mmediately afterwards. If all goes well, that could be as early as sunday; if not, then possibly tuesday or even thursday. She was already given her special medical car permit so that she will have access to Galveston island despite police blockades.
We are evacuating this afternoon to my in-laws' in Katy. Due to the kindness of my neighbor, a pastor at a local church, I have precut plywood for the south and east facing windows, but all stores around here are totally out of PlyLox. I just spent a pile of money at Loews on brackets, drill bits, screws, etc to see if we can jury rig something to hold the plywood in. I'll send one car with my wife and daughter ahead and will stay behind with the handyman to finish the work, then drive out to Katy early evening. Will probably hit a lot of evacuee traffic, but c'est la vie :)
As they say, if you evacuate voluntarily, you get to go in your car, to your destination of choice. Waiting until mandatory evac means you go how and where they tell you. Any Galveston county residents: get out today.
This thing will hopefully blow over, pun intended :) I wish I had plylox; will definitely buy some after the storm. Hope I dont damaege my brick too much today, but have to do what I have to do...
We are evacuating this afternoon to my in-laws' in Katy. Due to the kindness of my neighbor, a pastor at a local church, I have precut plywood for the south and east facing windows, but all stores around here are totally out of PlyLox. I just spent a pile of money at Loews on brackets, drill bits, screws, etc to see if we can jury rig something to hold the plywood in. I'll send one car with my wife and daughter ahead and will stay behind with the handyman to finish the work, then drive out to Katy early evening. Will probably hit a lot of evacuee traffic, but c'est la vie :)
As they say, if you evacuate voluntarily, you get to go in your car, to your destination of choice. Waiting until mandatory evac means you go how and where they tell you. Any Galveston county residents: get out today.
This thing will hopefully blow over, pun intended :) I wish I had plylox; will definitely buy some after the storm. Hope I dont damaege my brick too much today, but have to do what I have to do...
Monday, September 19, 2005
Rita's comin' to Texas, folks
and she might even be headed down Galveston way. It is of course too early to make definite predictions about where Hurricane Rita is going to make landfall, but there's been a lot more consistency in the predicted tracks all of a sudden.
(scroll to the end of the post for the most recent satellite imagery and track predictions)
It's important in the wake of Katrina that we all take hurricane preparedness seriously. Other Houston-area bloggers of note are Charles and Kevin - I hope that they also keep an eye on this. A hit on our region of the Gulf is very likely and we need to make sure we are ready. Here's the relevant info page from NOAA that we should be bookmarking, especially given that Rita is predicted to gain significant strength as she rounds the Keys and engters the warm open water of the Gulf.
And Houston, not New Orleans, is the real center of gravity for oil production in this nation. And that industry is very vulnerable right now...
As far as Galveston is concerned, the great Hurricane of 1900 was the proverbial hundred year storm. Well, it's been 105 years. I live in Galveston county and I have my exit route planned. My wife is a resident at UTMB however and so it is conceivable that she might be called to duty. If that happens I am staying with her and sending the baby to safety in Katy with my in-laws.
Eric Berger did do a worst-case scenario story a while back in the Chron which put the potential damage from a "perfect" storm at about ten times the cost of Tropical Storm Allison. While wind damage woudl be pretty bad in and of itself, the storm surge along Clear Lake and the Ship Channel are the real concerns:
What was wierd about TS Allison was that it essentially parked itself over Houston for a week. The article above mentions that Allison could be considered more properly a 10,000 year event rather than a 100 year event. If thats true, then the flooding from a hurricane strike should drain relatively quickly. However, there's no real way to compare the effect of a hurricane at category 4 or 5 with the TS because of the added factor of the storm surge and winds. So really it is anyone's guess.
UPDATE: Anne has posted at BlogHouston, and so have Charles, Laurence Simon, Tom Kirkendall, and Eric Berger.
UPDATE 2. The mayor of Galveston has called for a voluntary evacuation. Buses will be provided staring at 10am wednesday. By then we should know whether Rita is really going to be knockin' on our door or not.
Here are some graphics from NOAA which should be automatically updated with the latest information. Reloading the URL to this post will give you the most recent version.
5-day cone of probability
Approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow).
72-hours 75-miles strike probability
Probability, in percent, that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 75 statute miles of a location during the next 72 hours.
Satellite imagery (visible spectrum)
(scroll to the end of the post for the most recent satellite imagery and track predictions)
It's important in the wake of Katrina that we all take hurricane preparedness seriously. Other Houston-area bloggers of note are Charles and Kevin - I hope that they also keep an eye on this. A hit on our region of the Gulf is very likely and we need to make sure we are ready. Here's the relevant info page from NOAA that we should be bookmarking, especially given that Rita is predicted to gain significant strength as she rounds the Keys and engters the warm open water of the Gulf.
And Houston, not New Orleans, is the real center of gravity for oil production in this nation. And that industry is very vulnerable right now...
As far as Galveston is concerned, the great Hurricane of 1900 was the proverbial hundred year storm. Well, it's been 105 years. I live in Galveston county and I have my exit route planned. My wife is a resident at UTMB however and so it is conceivable that she might be called to duty. If that happens I am staying with her and sending the baby to safety in Katy with my in-laws.
Eric Berger did do a worst-case scenario story a while back in the Chron which put the potential damage from a "perfect" storm at about ten times the cost of Tropical Storm Allison. While wind damage woudl be pretty bad in and of itself, the storm surge along Clear Lake and the Ship Channel are the real concerns:
More devastation would be caused by winds blowing over the Gulf of Mexico and pushing surface water inland -- creating up to a 20-foot storm surge. Such a wall of water would swamp most development near Galveston Bay, including Texas City, Kemah and Johnson Space Center. Varying levels of water would flood much of the area between Sam Houston Parkway and the bay.
On Galveston Island, the seawall could hold back much of the storm surge, but at some point the water would creep onto the island from the bay side. The island's highest point is just 22 feet above sea level.
Much like a river becomes deeper and more turbulent when it narrows, a storm surge also can increase in height and intensity when its source of water narrows. Dodson said this has profound implications for the Port of Houston. Some models ended with a 30-foot wall of water in the Ship Channel near the port's turning basin, he said. "It would be huge," he said. "It could overwhelm chemical storage facilities, water treatment plants and other sensitive areas."
What was wierd about TS Allison was that it essentially parked itself over Houston for a week. The article above mentions that Allison could be considered more properly a 10,000 year event rather than a 100 year event. If thats true, then the flooding from a hurricane strike should drain relatively quickly. However, there's no real way to compare the effect of a hurricane at category 4 or 5 with the TS because of the added factor of the storm surge and winds. So really it is anyone's guess.
UPDATE: Anne has posted at BlogHouston, and so have Charles, Laurence Simon, Tom Kirkendall, and Eric Berger.
UPDATE 2. The mayor of Galveston has called for a voluntary evacuation. Buses will be provided staring at 10am wednesday. By then we should know whether Rita is really going to be knockin' on our door or not.
Here are some graphics from NOAA which should be automatically updated with the latest information. Reloading the URL to this post will give you the most recent version.
5-day cone of probability
Approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow).
72-hours 75-miles strike probability
Probability, in percent, that the center of the tropical cyclone will pass within 75 statute miles of a location during the next 72 hours.
Satellite imagery (visible spectrum)
Sunday, September 18, 2005
Rennaisance, not Reformation
I'm not one to insist that you must be muslim to discuss Islam, but most of the time when non-muslims do discuss Islam the result either provokes anger or amusement in the muslim observer. Which, is really the choice of the muslim observer in question. I've decided it's better for my long-term sanity to adopt the latter.
There are however times when someone makes what I consider an honest attempt at inquiry. One such is by a new jewish blogger, Dafydd ab Hugh, who makes an analogy to "Methodist" Islam. The comments devolved quickly into the usual jafi cesspool, despite a truly noble but ultimately failed attempt at restoring perspective by Dean Esmay.
I intended to leave a short comment, but am not keen on registering with TypeKey, so I'll just post my comment here and send a trackback ping. Basically, in a nutshell, Wahhabbism IS the Reformation of Islam, sort of - and we should be discussing an Islamic Rennaisance, not a Reformation, anyway.
Here are a number of posts from past archives, both here and at other sites, that I think are relevant to the discussion. I think that given how much attention has been paid to the question of an Islamic Reformation in the past by muslim and non-muslim bloggers alike, that reading these past discussions is really basic due diligence for someone honestly interested in the topic today.
Wahabism IS the Reformation?
A dialouge of unprovable assertions
Wahabis/Salafis Again (by Zack)
Reformation this
Note, Bill Allison took some exception to the Reformation/Wahabism analogy. He also has pointed out that the Reformation was NOT a "progressive" vision of faith (contrary to Dafydd's assertion). If anything, Luther sought a return to even stricter orthodoxy!
I also think that the recent Brass Crescent Links Roundup would be useful counterweight to the more hostile commentators at Dafydd's blog. And this little Primer on Islam post has even more linkage.
No I don't really expect the jafis among us to read let alone appreciate the nuances of these previous discussions. However, it may be useful to bring them to the fore, in terms of stimulating more honest inquiry. I hope that Dafydd at the very least takes an interest.
And you know what, as long as I'm plugging old stuff, here's one of my favorite posts: Islam and Freedom. Enjoy.
Note, Tarek Heggy is beginning a series on Islam at Winds Of Change that should at least be noted. I disagree with nearly all of his assumptions and postulates. I don't know if Heggy is mulsim or not and it's not really relevant, but figured I'd just mention it for completeness.
There are however times when someone makes what I consider an honest attempt at inquiry. One such is by a new jewish blogger, Dafydd ab Hugh, who makes an analogy to "Methodist" Islam. The comments devolved quickly into the usual jafi cesspool, despite a truly noble but ultimately failed attempt at restoring perspective by Dean Esmay.
I intended to leave a short comment, but am not keen on registering with TypeKey, so I'll just post my comment here and send a trackback ping. Basically, in a nutshell, Wahhabbism IS the Reformation of Islam, sort of - and we should be discussing an Islamic Rennaisance, not a Reformation, anyway.
Here are a number of posts from past archives, both here and at other sites, that I think are relevant to the discussion. I think that given how much attention has been paid to the question of an Islamic Reformation in the past by muslim and non-muslim bloggers alike, that reading these past discussions is really basic due diligence for someone honestly interested in the topic today.
Wahabism IS the Reformation?
A dialouge of unprovable assertions
Wahabis/Salafis Again (by Zack)
Reformation this
Note, Bill Allison took some exception to the Reformation/Wahabism analogy. He also has pointed out that the Reformation was NOT a "progressive" vision of faith (contrary to Dafydd's assertion). If anything, Luther sought a return to even stricter orthodoxy!
I also think that the recent Brass Crescent Links Roundup would be useful counterweight to the more hostile commentators at Dafydd's blog. And this little Primer on Islam post has even more linkage.
No I don't really expect the jafis among us to read let alone appreciate the nuances of these previous discussions. However, it may be useful to bring them to the fore, in terms of stimulating more honest inquiry. I hope that Dafydd at the very least takes an interest.
And you know what, as long as I'm plugging old stuff, here's one of my favorite posts: Islam and Freedom. Enjoy.
Note, Tarek Heggy is beginning a series on Islam at Winds Of Change that should at least be noted. I disagree with nearly all of his assumptions and postulates. I don't know if Heggy is mulsim or not and it's not really relevant, but figured I'd just mention it for completeness.
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